Washington, DC, January 6, 2026 --  

Despite the ouster of Venezuela's dictator, there are few signs of altering an awful status quo.

When Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president¹, it was a bad sign for the future of Venezuela. Just two days earlier, American special forces made a daring raid to seize President Maduro, offering hopes of regime change, an end of socialist rule, and a return to democracy. Those hopes quickly faded as Maduro's second in command ascended to become chief oppressor for the socialist regime.

Rodriguez is a long-time member of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, founded by late dictator Hugo Chavez. After Chavez's death, then Vice President Maduro took over, keeping the same disastrous policies of his predecessor (but losing his dramatic flair). Now that Maduro is gone, Rodriguez is maintaining continuity yet again.

This begs the question: what was the point of America's raid on Venezuela? Yes, Maduro was illegitimate, having clearly stolen elections to stay in power. And, yes, he probably collaborated with drug traffickers to earn money for the regime and enrich his inner circle. But if he is simply replaced by Rodriguez who is similarly illegitimate and will likely maintain the same policies, it makes little practical difference. In the words of Trump's right-wing former national security advisor turned critic John Bolton, this risks a "hollow victory."²

Secretary of State Marco Rubio claims he has been in contact with Rodriguez, giving hope that she will be more compliant with U.S. demands than her predecessor. And the United States is maintaining its naval blockade of Venezuela, which may block oil shipments that earn cash for the friendly regime in Cuba. Cuba announced late Sunday that 38 of its officers were killed in America's operation to seize Maduro,³ highlighting the degree to which Venezuela relies on Cuban security forces to bolster socialist rule against a disapproving public.

President Trump is using the dramatic spectacle of the military operation to stoke fear in his enemies in the region. He said Rodriguez may face a worse fate if she fails to comply, that Colombia's left-wing president Gustavo Petro had better watch his ass, and that the Cuban communist regime is "ready to fall" in the face of a loss of Venezuelan oil.⁴

This is empty bluster. The threat against Colombia's President Petro is silly -- for all his lefty ugliness, he's a democratically elected leader apt to be replaced by a more right-wing successor in less than two years. And Cuba's communist regime is stubbornly resilient, defying decades of predictions of its imminent demise.

America's blockade on oil shipments from Venezuela is unlikely to end Cuban communism. Cuba's infamous electricity blackouts have been caused by poor maintenance of aging power plants, not lack of oil. Cuba actually produces 80,000 barrels daily, enough to meet a third of its needs.⁵ Imports make up the balance, but mostly not from Venezuela, which is no longer a reliable supplier due to its own decaying infrastructure. Mexico surpassed Venezuela to become Cuba's top supplier in 2025, continuing a long term policy of sending humanitarian aid to the island.⁶ Cuba may also be able to boost imports from Algeria, an old ally from the era of anti-colonialism.

Yet America's oil blockade will stop Cuba from re-exporting Venezuelan oil to China to pay for Chinese imports. In recent years, ample Mexica, Russian and Algerian supplies have enabled this practice.⁷ The loss of this strategy will hurt Cuba in the long term -- just don't expect it to cause a crisis from widespread blackouts.

The prospects for change in Venezuela itself are similarly dubious. Outrageously, the Trump administration has dismissed exiled opposition leader Maria Machado. Her stand-in candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won the 2024 presidential election according to opposition-smuggled polling station records, making him the legal president of Venezuela. Trump dismissed Machado for not having the respect of the Venezuelan people, and highlighted the administration's contacts with illegitimate interim president Delcy Rodriguez.⁸

Is all hope lost? Time will tell. It is possible that an uprising in Venezuela or Cuba will emerge to seize the moment. It's also possible that fear of sharing Maduro's fate (combined with a heavy dose of good luck) will yield a benign palace coup in either country.

But the fact that the world must wish for dumb luck for long-suffering Venezuelans and Cubans, especially in the wake of a dramatic American intervention, is terribly disappointing. It is not surprising that the Trump Administration has not fixed a Venezuelan problem that has frustrated every administration since 2002, and a Cuban problem which has proved intractable since 1959.

Seeing Nicolas Maduro face justice may be a small victory. But so long as it leads to a new face on the same regime, it is a hollow victory at best.

Related Web Columns:

Convenient Accusations, October 14, 2025

Notes:

1. Reuters, Delcy Rodriguez Formally Sworn in as Venezuela's Interim President, January 5, 2025

2. Telegraph, Removing Maduro Alone Would be a Hollow Victory for America, January 3, 2026

3. Associated Press, Cuba Says 32 Cuban Officers Were Killed in US Operation in Venezuela, January 4, 2026

4. ABC News, Trump Implies He May Target Colombia's President, Says Cuba Appears 'Ready to Fall', January 6, 2026

5. Economist, Blackouts in Cuba Highlight the Island's Extreme Energy Fragility, October 22, 2024

6. Financial Times, Mexico Overtakes Venezuela as Cuba's Top Oil Supplier, January 6, 2025

7. Guardian, Cuba Denounces US Seizure of Oil Tanker Off Venezuela's Coast as 'Piracy', December 15, 2025

8. ABC News, Trump Says Venezuelan Opposition Leader Doesn't Have the 'Respect' to Govern after Maduro Ousted, January 3, 2025