Washington, DC, September 1, 2026 --  

Don't expect America's oil deal with Venezuela to bring down prices at the pump or do anything to boost the American economy.

When America's braggart in chief began bloviating last week about a huge new deal to take majority control of Venezuela's oil reserves, the chasm between rhetoric and reality became even huger than normal. Perhaps the biggest part of this gap is Trump's claim that this will "substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans."¹

That's not going to happen -- not anytime soon anyway, and probably not even within the 80-year-old president's lifetime. The key problem with using Venezuelan wells to bring down oil prices is that the industry has all but collapsed during the socialist misrule of former presidents Nicolas Maduro and Hugo Chavez. Last year's production averaged just 1 million barrels of oil per day, down from a peak of over 3 million just after Chavez came to power in 1999.²

This anemic level of production is due to decrepit infrastructure that will take years to rebuild. According to the CEO of Chevron, the American oil company with the largest footprint in today's Venezuela, It will take until the end of next year just to increase production by 50 percent to 1.5 million barrels of oil per day³. Sounds great, unless you compare this extra 0.5 million barrels of oil per day to the 13.6 million that were produced in the United States last year⁴. Or compare it to the 1 million barrel per day export reduction from Iran as a result of America's naval blockade on the country⁵. Venezuela's near-term production is just a drop in the bucket that's not going to change anything any time soon.

Clearly, Trump's rhetoric is aimed at reassuring American voters as midterm elections approach. These voters are angry at him for launching an elective foreign war against his campaign promise to end such misadventures.

American voters drive some of the largest and most gas-guzzling cars in the world, so it's no surprise that they are mad about paying over $4 per gallon for gas compared to the $3 per gallon they were paying when they elected Trump on his promise to end to Biden-era inflation.

Inflation, of course, has been ticking up since the Iran war started, partly due to the downstream effects of higher oil prices. In every month since March, America's consumer price index came in at above 3 percent, hitting 4.2 percent in May before moderating back to 3.4 percent in July.⁵ All those figures are well above the inflation rate for the last six months of the Biden administration.

To make matters worse for the president, his newly-appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, expressed his concern Friday with stubbornly high inflation, signaling increased likelihood that he will support an interest rate hike when the Fed meets later this month.⁶ Such a hike, if it comes to pass, would directly contradict Trump's stated reason for picking him to help keep rates down.

A return to interest rate hikes to fight rising inflation of the president's own making is likely to sour the public mood even further.

Clearly, Trump's enthusiasm about the Venezuelan oil deal is an indicator of his desperation as he struggles to find anything positive to brag about. But this focus also shows just how out of touch the 80-year-old has become. Oil companies used to be a huge part of the American economy, with Exxon Mobil often ranking as the largest U.S. company by market capitalization as late as 2012. But things have changed greatly in the past few decades.

Today, 9 of the top 10 largest US companies by market cap are about high tech, not petroleum And Exxon Mobile? While it is still America's largest oil company, it has fallen to 18th place behind Johnson and Johnson⁷, the former band-aid manufacturer that shifted to more lucrative pharmaceuticals to stay relevant. Maybe somebody should explain to the president that oil just isn't as important a part of the American economy anymore.

And there is the irony: while helping America's oil companies return to Venezuela will do little to boost the American economy, nefarious meddling in the Middle East can still have a great impact on the prices Americans pay at the pump -- at least in the short-term. Given his track record, don't hold your breath that the president will learn either of these lessons any time soon.

Notes:

1. BBC, Trump Hails 'Historic' Deal for US to Control 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuela's Oil, August 29, 2026

2. CNBC, Can Venezuela Get Back to Producing 3 Million Barrels of Crude Oil a Day? January 28, 2026

3. S&P Global, Chevron Sees 50% Growth in Venezuela Oil Production by End of 2028: CFO, July 31, 2026

4. US Energy Information Administration, The United States Produced More Crude Oil Than Any Other Country in 2025, July 9, 2026

5. CNBC, U.S. Navy Blockade Slashes Iran Oil Exports as Trump Administration Shifts to Economic Warfare, August 28, 2026

6. Associated Press, Fed Chair Warsh Signals Rate Hikes May be Needed with US Inflation Stubbornly Elevated, August 28, 2026

7. CompaniesMarketCap.com, as posted August 30, 2026